Scatter factor confidence interval estimate of least square maximum entropy quantile function for small samples

Classic maximum entropy quantile function method (CMEQFM) based on the probabil-ity weighted moments (PWMs) can accurately estimate the quantile function of random variable on small samples, but inaccurately on the very small samples. To overcome this weakness, least square maximum entropy quantile function method (LSMEQFM) and that with constraint condition (LSMEQFMCC) are proposed. To improve the confidence level of quantile function estimation, scatter factor method is combined with maximum entropy method to estimate the confidence inter-val of quantile function. From the comparisons of these methods about two common probability distributions and one engineering application, it is showed that CMEQFM can estimate the quan-tile function accurately on the small samples but inaccurately on the very small samples (10 sam-ples); LSMEQFM and LSMEQFMCC can be successfully applied to the very small samples;with consideration of the constraint condition on quantile function, LSMEQFMCC is more stable and computationally accurate than LSMEQFM; scatter factor confidence interval estimation method based on LSMEQFM or LSMEQFMCC has good estimation accuracy on the confidence interval of quantile function, and that based on LSMEQFMCC is the most stable and accurate method on the very small samples (10 samples).     

Reliability analysis based on a novel density estimation method for structures with correlations

Estimating the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the performance function is a direct way for structural reliability analysis,and the failure probability can be easily obtained by integration in the failure domain.However,efficiently estimating the PDF is still an urgent problem to be solved.The existing fractional moment based maximum entropy has provided a very advanced method for the PDF estimation,whereas the main shortcoming is that it limits the application of the reliability analysis method only to structures with independent inputs.While in fact,structures with correlated inputs always exist in engineering,thus this paper improves the maximum entropy method,and applies the Unscented Transformation (UT) technique to compute the frac tional moments of the performance function for structures with correlations,which is a very efficient moment estimation method for models with any inputs.The proposed method can precisely estimate the probability distributions of performance functions for structures with correlations.Besides,the number of function evaluations of the proposed method in reliability analysis,which is determined by UT,is really small.Several examples are employed to illustrate the accuracy and advantages of the proposed method.     

Cubature Kalman filter with closed-loop covariance feedback control for integrated INS/GNSS navigation

Cubature Kalman Filter (CKF) offers a promising solution to handle the data fusion of integrated nonlinear INS/GNSS (Inertial Navigation System/Global Navigation Satellite System) navigation. However, its accuracy is degraded by inaccurate kinematic noise statistics which originate from disturbances of system dynamics. This paper develops a method of closed-loop feedback covariance control to address the above problem of CKF. In this method, the posterior state and its covariance are fed back to the filtering process to constitute a closed-loop structure for CKF covariance propagation. Subsequently, based on the maximum likelihood principle, a control scheme of the prior state covariance is established by using the feedback state and covariance within an estimation window and further adopting a proportional coefficient to amplify the feedback terms in recent time steps for the full use of new information to reflect actual system characteristics. Since it does not directly use kinematic noise covariance, the proposed method can effectively avoid the adverse impact of inaccurate kinematic noise statistics on filtering solutions. Further, it can also guarantee the prior state covariance to be positive semi-definite without involving extra measures. The efficacy of the proposed method is validated by simulations and experiments for integrated INS/GNSS navigation.     

A practical filter error method for aerodynamic parameter estimation of aircraft in turbulence

It is common for aircraft to encounter atmospheric turbulence in flight tests. Turbulence is usually modeled as stochastic process noise in the flight dynamics equations. In this paper, parameter estimation of nonlinear dynamic system with both process and measurement noise was studied, and a practical filter error method was proposed. The linearized Kalman filter of first-order approximation was used for state estimation, in which the filter gain, along with the system parameters and the initial states, constituted the parameter vector to be estimated. The unknown parameters and measurement noise covariance were estimated alternately by a relaxation iteration method, and the sensitivities of observations to unknown parameters were calculated by finite difference approximation. Some practical aspects of the method application were discussed. The proposed filter error method was validated by the flight simulation data of a research aircraft. Then, the method was applied to the flight tests of a subscale aircraft, and the aerodynamic stability and control derivatives were estimated. All the estimation results were compared with the results of the output error method to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach. It is shown that the filter error method is superior to the output error method for flight tests in atmospheric turbulence.     

编码扩频通信系统中非相干解调技术研究

为满足当前信息技术高速、安全、可靠通信的要求 ,对基于编码扩频的 DS/FH(直序 /跳频 )混合扩频通信系统中非相干解调技术进行了研究 ,简要分析编码扩频信号的组成 ,重点讨论数据解调时采用的非相干最大相关输出解调方案及其误码特性 ,并与其它通信系统的通信性能进行对比。仿真结果证实方案切实可行     

返回舱弹道重建与黑障区弹道再现研究

对于飞船返回舱，黑障区弹道再现是再人飞行试验气动分析工作的重要环节。利用舱上测量数据和有限的雷达测量数据重构飞行弹道，是黑障区弹道再现的有效方法。本文建立了返回舱弹道重建的数学模型，包括运动学模型、观测模型、测量误差模型，从而将返回舱弹道重建问题转化为一个非线性动态系统的参数辨识问题。给出了基于极大似然判据和Newton-Raphson迭代的弹道重建算法。对某飞船返回舱的飞行试验数据进行了计算和分析，结果证实了弹道重建数学模型的正确性和算法的可行性。通过弹道重建，不仅再现了黑障区的弹道，而且提供了可靠的、完整的弹道数据。     

弹性飞行器的传感器位置设计

为了消除飞行器的气动弹性与控制系统之间的互相影响,必须适当选择传感器的安装位置。用现代控制理论的方法研究了弹性飞行器传感器的平面设置,提出了带常参数的最优过程模型,建立了旨在抑制弹性振动的性能指标。把庞特里亚金极大值原理与样条拟合方法结合起来,得到了用于速率陀螺设置的简单公式。实例分析和计算表明,利用该方法所得的结果比根轧迹方法简单、准确。     

CZ-2F逃逸飞行器最大速度头模拟飞行试验技术

最大速度头试验是指模拟运载火箭在最大速度头状态(Qmax)出现故障时，考核逃逸飞行器的工作情况。通过试验获得逃逸飞行器环境及性能参数；考核其结构强度；考核栅格翼释放机构的功能。试验涉及逃逸飞行器结构、遥测系统、外测系统、火箭车动力系统、火工品控制系统等，属于大型综合性试验，难度大，风险高。本文简述了CZ-2F逃逸飞行器的功能，介绍了最大速度头地面模拟飞行试验目的、方案设计及结果分析，得出了相应的结论。     

一些评定液体弹道式导弹最大射程的新的统计方法

本文得到了液体弹道式导弹最大射程ｔ的精确解及算法，改进了原有的评定方法，并利用极大似然法及自动法给出了一般模型下的最大射程的评定方法，并给出了计算实例。     

一种估计机动目标运动参数的方法

本文利用非线性跟踪微分器思想，提出了一种对机动目标的运动参数进行估计的新方法。该方法的实质是设计一个动态系统，在跟踪从雷达获得的位置信息的同时，得到目标运动的速度信息。最后给出的仿真结果表明，它不仅具有较高的估计精度，而且计算量不大，不失为一种工程上可实现的有效方法。